Live: Hormuz Crisis Research

Macro Intelligence · Transmission Analysis

From market shock
to transmission
to signal.

ShockBridge Pulse maps how macro events, geopolitical shocks, and market stress transmit across exposures, turning noise into structured intelligence for faster, clearer decisions.

For investors, advisors, and serious market operators.

Transmission chain

Six steps from macro trigger to decision-ready output.

01Shock02Pressure03Spillover04Exposure05Watchpoints06Decision

Every Intelligence Brief maps this full sequence. ShockBridge traces each step before the exposure becomes obvious.

Process

Simple in. Sharp out.

Three steps from event to structured intelligence.

01

Send one exposure

Tell me the risk you cannot fully see. A portfolio pressure, a sector shift, a macro event hitting your business or clients.

02

I map the transmission chain

ShockBridge traces how the shock moves. First-order effects, second-order risks, spillover paths, and structured watchpoints, before it becomes obvious.

03

Your Intelligence Brief

Transmission chain mapped. Scenarios framed. Watchpoints flagged. Decision-ready the moment it lands.

Because it thinks in chains, not fragments.

01
ShockPressure

Not just output. Structure.

Every brief follows transmission logic: cause, pressure, spillover, watchpoints. In that order, every time.

02
SpilloverExposure

Not just reaction. Transmission.

It traces how a shock moves — what hits first, what spills over next, and where the real exposure concentrates.

03
WatchpointsDecision

Not just analysis. Decision.

Structured for immediate use. Readable under pressure and built for fast decision cycles.

See it in action

One input turns into a complete Intelligence Brief.

Example input

EventOil spikes 8%
RegionBrazil
Asset / SectorEnergy & equities
Horizon1 week
ToneBalanced
ContextConflict Strait of Hormuz

Intelligence Brief

Oil Pressure Reprices Brazil's Inflation and Equity Sensitivity

An oil spike can strengthen the earnings narrative for energy-linked names while reviving inflation pressure and complicating the rate outlook for domestic cyclicals.

First-order effects

  • Petrobras reprices 4–6% on improved revenue outlook
  • IPCA futures shift higher on fuel pass-through dynamics
  • Rate-sensitive sectors compress on multiple pressures

Watch next

Rate curve reactionBRL behaviorPetrobras guidanceDomestic cyclicals

The same output, built around your exposure.

Custom Engagement

Need judgment, not just structure?
Built around your real exposure, not a template.

The Analyst Report is not a plan, not a subscription. ShockBridge intelligence applied directly to your real business, portfolio, sector, or specific exposure.

Analyst Report

From $199

Products deliver briefs. Analyst delivers judgment.

Each report is tailored. Pricing depends on scope and complexity.

Custom Analyst Report

$199

Length

6–8 pages

Best for

One exposure, fast risk map

Delivery

48–72 hours

Strategic Exposure Report

$499

Length

10–14 pages

Best for

Deeper analysis, client-ready

Delivery

3–5 business days

Flagship Authority Paper

$1,500

Length

8–12 pages

Best for

Public authority piece

Delivery

7–10 business days

Every Analyst Report includes

Intake and context collection
Tailored risk and exposure analysis
Three scenarios: base, stress, and shock
Transmission channels and second-order risks
Strategic interpretation in plain English
Response directions, not generic advice
Custom PDF report, clean and professional
One revision round included

Request an Analyst Report

Send a short note on your business, portfolio, or the specific exposure you want analyzed. I review each request personally and confirm scope and price within 24 hours.

Request Analyst Report

A finished research product on a live market event.

Publication-ready intelligence on a specific macro event or exposure. Full transmission chain, named companies, exact thresholds, bullish and bearish paths, regime horizon. Structured as a 12-page publication-grade document.

Every brief includes

  • Full transmission chain with named exposure points
  • Named companies with specific entry conditions
  • Bullish and bearish scenario paths
  • Regime horizon at 6 and 12 months
  • Research Desk — hidden variables and regime analysis

Bridge

$199

One-time · No intake

One macro event, mapped in full. The transmission chain, the named companies, the precise thresholds, the two scenario paths. Structured for a client brief, an investment committee, or a positioning decision.

  • One in-depth Intelligence Brief
  • Full macro-intelligence output
  • 12-page publication-quality PDF
  • Delivered immediately on purchase

Each brief is written to publication standard. Structured for a research note, a client brief, or an investment committee presentation.

Research

Research the chain before contagion becomes obvious.

ShockBridge Pulse goes one layer deeper: from structured market logic into original research on contagion, option-implied stress, and hidden transmission across financial markets.

The live product is the intelligence layer. The research section documents the analytical architecture behind it.

Hormuz transmission chain published on SSRN before coverage in Foreign Policy, HPCwire, GlobalData, and Epoch AI.

Working Paper · Crisis Extension

Two-Layer Hormuz Transmission

Helium, Semiconductors, and AI Compute Evidence from a High-Dimensional Daily Panel Structure

Maps how Hormuz stress moves beyond the visible energy shock into a slower industrial channel: helium logistics, semiconductor fabrication, and downstream AI-compute capacity. Built on a public daily panel (2020–2026), local projections, generalized Morse wavelets, scale-by-scale CCA, and Monte Carlo tail diagnostics. Long-horizon Brent–SOX bottleneck collapses to a sparse quarterly direction with held-out correlation of 0.825.

V5 · available on SSRN

Working Paper · Language Economics

How Much is the Portuguese Language Worth?

An Empirical Valuation Using a High-Dimensional Language-Conditioned Dynamic Asset Valuation Framework (L-DAVF)

Introduces the Language-Conditioned Dynamic Asset Valuation Framework (L-DAVF), a novel high-dimensional methodology that treats language as a conditioning variable in an asset pricing structure. Applied to Portuguese as an economic asset across Lusophone markets, isolating the incremental value attributable to linguistic capital from co-varying macro and financial factors.

Working Paper · Brazilian Equities

From Spot to Stress

Multiscale Contagion in High-Dimensional Brazilian Equities with Airy Wavelets and Option-Implied Signals

Studies how stress spreads across Brazilian equities before broad contagion becomes obvious. Combines Airy wavelets, regularized canonical dependence, Monte Carlo calibration, and option-implied stress signals to map latent transmission channels across sectors and horizons, asking whether derivatives begin signaling deterioration before spot-return networks fully reprice.

V4 draft · available on SSRN

Get ShockBridge research updates. Paper releases, new crisis notes, and transmission insights. No noise.

About

Built for people who need structure under pressure.

When a major market event hits, most tools stop at the headline. ShockBridge Pulse was built to go further.

The platform maps the transmission chain behind a shock: what moves first, what spills over next, where exposure hides before it becomes obvious. The result is structured intelligence designed for professionals who need to think clearly and move fast.

ShockBridge Pulse is research-backed, founder-led, and built around one core discipline: turning macro noise into decision-ready signal.

3

Working Papers

<72h

Analyst Delivery

$199

Bridge Brief

$199

Analyst Starting Price

A few things worth knowing

One exposure.
One risk map.
One decision frame.

Send me one exposure. I will show you the transmission chain.